Behind the Curtain: Russia’s Hybrid Aggression
The war in Ukraine may be the most visible aspect of Russia’s ambitions, but it is just one piece of a much larger puzzle.
In the past few years, Russia’s military and political moves have repeatedly made global headlines, particularly following its invasion of Ukraine. But while Ukraine remains at the forefront of discussions, this focus often overshadows Russia’s broader ambitions. The truth is, Russia’s strategies reach far beyond Eastern Europe and are part of a much larger game plan, one that spans multiple regions.
One region where Russia's influence is growing—though it often escapes attention—is Georgia. Nestled between the Black and Caspian Seas, Georgia is geopolitically significant, especially when it comes to energy corridors that are critical for both Europe and Asia. By using a mix of military threats, political manipulation, and economic pressure—tactics often referred to as "hybrid aggression"—Russia continues to undermine Georgia's sovereignty. This slow erosion of Georgian independence solidifies Moscow's control over the area while leaving Georgia vulnerable to further destabilization.
Meanwhile, Russia’s reach extends even further, into the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). In Egypt, Russia has invested billions in the El Dabaa Nuclear Power Plant, cementing a long-term partnership that grants it tremendous leverage in North Africa. This project, largely funded by a $25 billion loan from Russia, ensures that Egypt will depend on Moscow for its energy, leaving it more aligned with Russian interests and less susceptible to Western influence.
What’s particularly striking is how Russia is not just focused on military might or infrastructure projects, but also on shaping the internal politics of its partner countries. Through legislative measures like the Foreign Agents Act, Russia has found ways to weaken civil society and limit external pressures, all while maintaining the veneer of legality. The 2012 Russian law has served as a model for similar regulations in places like Egypt and Georgia, where governments have used it to target non-governmental organizations and individuals critical of the state. In these countries, this has resulted in a severe crackdown on human rights groups, independent media, and activists.
The Foreign Agents Act, initially passed in Russia, is particularly insidious. By labeling NGOs and foreign-funded organizations as “foreign agents,” the law stigmatizes and marginalizes civil society groups, painting them as potential threats. In Egypt, the 2017 NGO law, inspired by Russia’s approach, has led to the closure of hundreds of organizations and left countless activists detained. Human Rights Watch estimates that over 60,000 political prisoners remain behind bars in Egypt, many without trial, a stark reminder of how authoritarianism thrives when dissent is silenced. Similarly, in Russia, the law has targeted media outlets and journalists, creating a hostile environment where speaking out against the government can lead to legal harassment and worse.
Russia’s influence, or in these specific cases, direct intervention, also extends into Sudan and Libya, two North African countries that have been caught in a web of political instability. In Sudan, Russia has played a role in supporting a murderous faction, the Rapid Speed Forces (RSF), through its’ paramilitary wing, Wagner Group, within the ongoing conflict, strategically positioning itself to gain illegitimate access to Sudan’s rich natural resources, particularly gold.
Meanwhile, in Libya, Russia has backed General Khalifa Haftar's forces in the east, providing military support in exchange for influence over Libya's oil resources—more energy. These interventions reflect Russia’s broader strategy of leveraging regional instability to strengthen its geopolitical standing, especially in resource-rich areas of the Middle East and North Africa.
Syria, yet another cornerstone of Russia’s geopolitical strategy in the Middle East. Since 2015, Russia’s military intervention in support of Bashar al-Assad’s regime has solidified its influence in the region. Russia’s presence in Syria is not just about preserving the Assad government; it has also secured long-term access to the Eastern Mediterranean through military bases such as the naval facility in Tartus. This foothold allows Russia to project power across the region, challenging Western influence while maintaining a strategic military advantage. Additionally, Russia’s involvement has helped shape Syria’s post-war political landscape, ensuring its role as a key player in any future negotiations or reconstruction efforts.
At the heart of this growing network of influence is a strategic use of energy projects. Georgia’s location between the Black and Caspian Seas makes it a vital corridor for energy transport, particularly through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, which carries oil from Azerbaijan to the Mediterranean. Russia’s growing influence in the region could give it more control over energy supplies destined for Europe, limiting Europe’s ability to diversify away from Russian resources. Though the intent to dominate this pipeline remains “speculative”, Russia’s broader history suggests that securing control over energy routes is key to its long-term strategy. Energy has always been one of Moscow’s most effective levers of influence.
Russia’s activities beyond its own borders, when viewed together, point to a much broader ambition. Beyond military conflicts and territorial expansion, Russia is working methodically to reshape the geopolitical landscape. This isn't just about controlling a few countries or gaining influence in specific regions. Russia’s actions are aimed at challenging Western dominance, particularly in areas like energy markets and military alliances. By entrenching itself in countries critical to Europe’s energy security and “aligning” with key players in the Middle East, Russia is positioning itself as a long-term power broker on the global stage.
But perhaps the most concerning aspect of Russia’s influence is its export of authoritarian practices. Through legal frameworks like the Foreign Agents Act, Russia has provided a blueprint for repression that is now being adopted by other authoritarian regimes. These laws are used to justify the detention of journalists, activists, and anyone deemed a threat to the regime’s control. In countries like Egypt, these repressive laws have crippled civil society, stifled free speech, and created a climate of fear.
The consequences of Russia’s initiatives could be far-reaching. Egypt’s reliance on Russia for nuclear technology ensures that Moscow will retain influence over Egyptian energy policy for decades to come, complicating Cairo’s relationships with Western countries. As a key player in the Arab world, Egypt’s closer alignment with Russia could trigger shifts in regional alliances, with neighboring countries potentially following suit. Moreover, Russia’s broader strategy of investing in energy infrastructure across the MENA region is likely to complicate Western efforts to maintain influence there.
Russia uses hybrid aggression to quietly extend its influence across key regions, undermining democracies and reshaping global power, one move at a time. This is about more than just geopolitical chess. It’s about the erosion of civil liberties, the suppression of free speech, and the rise of authoritarianism, not only in Russia but also in the countries it seeks to influence. As the world watches Ukraine, Russia’s ambitions stretch far beyond its borders.